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Creating a climate resilient woodland

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1 Climate change scenarios for Nardoo Hills

We came up with three future scenarios for Nardoo Hills – ranging from a slightly warmer SCENARIO 1 to a much hotter and wetter SCENARIO 3 – based on a range of emissions pathways and time periods.

Average maximum temperature

Average annual rainfall

CURRENT 2019
23.2°C
470mm

Target species for revegetation:

Grey Box
Eucalyptus microcarpa

Yellow Box
Eucalyptus melliodora

SCENARIO 1* 2050 RCP 4.5
24.4°C
475mm

Similar provenances:

Mathoura (NSW)

Junee (NSW)

SCENARIO 2* 2090 RCP 4.5
25.2°C
451mm

Similar provenances:

Quorn (SA)

Narrandera (NSW)

SCENARIO 3* 2090 RCP 8.5
26.0°C
521mm

Similar provenances:

Fifield (NSW)

Condobolin (NSW)

What are RCPs?

‘Representative Concentration Pathways’ are the four greenhouse gas concentration projections used in the IPCC’s fifth assessment report: RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6 and 8.5. They cover a range of emissions scenarios.

RCP 8.5 is the most dire and what we would likely see from a ‘business as usual’ approach.

RCP 2.6 is the most ambitious, and would require strong and urgent action.

* These climate scenarios are based on CSIRO/BoM Climates Futures models. Visit climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au for more information.

2 Sourcing seed from different climates

Grey Box and Yellow Box seeds of different provenances were collected, where possible, from regions with climates similar to the three future scenarios outlined above. Seeds from the local Nardoo Hills area were also collected.

3 Future proofing through cross pollination

Each provenance will be adapted to cope with a different temperature range and rainfall. Our hope is that, in decades to come, cross breeding will produce a far more genetically diverse and resilient woodland.

Grey Box provenances
Temperature and rainfall adaptations

Grey Box provenances graphic

Yellow Box provenances
Temperature and rainfall adaptations

Yellow Box provenances graphic
more resilient woodland